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An article I came across on:
It's time to dust off our MLB databases and start crunching numbers for this year's campaign.
There are no short cuts when it comes to looking for winning edges. Over the course of a full season, trends and systems tend to work themselves back toward the even mark.
If you’re thinking of a simple, get-rich-quick theory such as betting the 'under' on every Diamondbacks game -- forget it.
For many bettors, baseball is a hit or miss proposition. So to help you get that solid hit in the early going, I looked at the first month of baseball over the last five years to see if there were any solid trends.
And unfortunately, there weren't many surprises.
Please note, these numbers come from a total of 1,803 games played in the first month of the season from 1997-2001:
1. The ‘over’ was 861-855-77
Starting pitchers usually struggle to find their groove early in the season, but bookmakers don't. The 'over' holds a slight edge in this spot, but hardly worth mentioning.
2. The home team was 963-840 straight up (SU) in this time frame.
While the home side is winning at a 53.4 percent clip, there is no trend worth playing here either. In the majority of these contests, the home team was favored which meant the price of the home team was so high it wasn't worth playing.
3. Home favorites of -160 or greater were 164-83.
This is an impressive stat, with the home squad holding a 66 percent winning mark. However, we don’t find any value in ‘eating chalk’ with the heavy favorites. See above. An impressive record – yes. An impressive moneymaker – no.
4. Road favorites were 209-150.
Once again, favorites hold the edge. But it is worth taking a closer look at the road favorite because they tend to be cheaper to buy on the road than at home.
Judging from I’ve seen so far, you would expect that playing home teams or favorites would have sent you laughing all the way to the bank. Guess again.
You must remember with MLB, finding value and picking your spots is very important. Here is why:
You make five plays on favorites of -150, wagering $100 on each. (A -150 line with a $100 wager will return $67). If you win three of those plays, which is a respectable 60 percent winning record, you will actually show a measly $1-profit.
If you made the same five wagers on teams with a posted line of +115, and earned the same 3-2 record, your profit would be $145. It doesn’t take a mathematician to figure out where the value is.
Although it may seem easier to pick favorites, the margin for error is too tight. Look for situational underdog plays, and 'totals'.
Beware -- the same golden rule applies to searching for value when playing 'totals'. Paying -150 for a 'total' wager would fall into the same category as playing a medium or heavy favorite.
Here are a couple of interesting stats that might help you land on the right side of the ‘dog more often:
When handicapping your games, try to determine if the away team can hold the hosts to four or fewer runs. That fifth run has proven costly in deciding the outcome of many games.
If the home team scores five or more runs, it has held a 679-228 record (74 percent)
If the home team scores four or less runs, it held a 284-612 record (32 percent)
As always, money management is the most integral part to any bankroll. Create a game plan for the season, and stick with it. Good luck.
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